The War in Syria is Changing Trends in World Tourism

Last  November 24th, a SU24 Russian fighter plane was shot down in Turkey’s border causing an unprecedented diplomatic crisis between the two countries. Almost immediately, Moscow banned charter flights to Turkey, a favorite of Russian tourists destination, especially after the sharp devaluation of the ruble since last year. Previously, there was an IS  attack on a Russian passenger plane from Sharm-el Sheikh (Egypt), which led to the suspension of flights between Russia and Egypt, one of the favorite places for traveling for Russians outside its borders.

Vietnam, India, Thailand alternative destinations.
Although the situation of Russian travel agencies dedicated to foreign destinations is dramatic: the cancellation of trips to Egypt and Turkey must be added that many Russian citizens can not travel abroad, there are destinations that are experiencing rising demand. They are India (specifically the region of Goa) Thailand, UAE and Vietnam. The ruble has depreciated against most currencies but it has milder way against the currencies of these countries.

However, Russian officials have also warned of the dangers of traveling for example to Goa and Thailand, because due to the Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict makes the Russians are susceptible to jihadist attacks objectives. In addition, the Russian government is doing everything possible to promote tourism within the country.

Import substitution and tourist destinations. Crimea as a favorite destination.
The Russian tourist infrastructure, despite all efforts to confirm an improvement, is not ready to replace even in quality and price to the destinations that were once favorites. Crimea and other regions such as Krasnodar and Anapa are presented as possible alternative sites and, indeed, grow visits to these regions, but in any case, its impossible to absorb the millions of travelers who stop flying to Egypt and Turkey (see graphic ).

Hopefully Spain can experience an increase in Russian tourism, that had fallen in recent years. The boycott of Turkey affecting agricultural products accounted for in some cases 25% of the Russian agricultural market after the sanctions that forbide EU products. It is clear that Russia tries to make a policy of import substitution that also includes tourism. Another thing will be to what extent is Russia able to find replacement for these products and services without significantly increase the inflation, which has been 15% So far in 2015.

Paris bombings have affected the Chinese tourism.
After the terrorist attacks in Paris by IS, recent tourism statistics released many cancellations, but, after a certain time of the attacks, not all Chinese tourists are altering his visits to France. Actually, cancellations percentage has been one of every ten groups of tourists. The weak euro has made Paris a popular destination among Chinese buyers this year, even in the wake of the attack Charlie Hebdo that occurred last January. France was expected to receive more than 2 million Chinese tourists this year, up from 1.7 million last year.

Also, it is reported that some more experienced Chinese travelers are opting to plan trips in the near future, trying to get lower prices and visiting less crowded tourist attractions. The weakness of the euro is likely to continue to attract Chinese buyers in Europe, especially during the upcoming holiday period of Christmas and Chinese New Year, but experts believe it is likely that more travelers opt to go for example to Germany and European cities priviously  much less visited.

Japan increases the visits of Chinese tourists.
The conflict situation in Europe and the Middle East increases the number of Chinese tourists in other Asian countries. For example, Japan is a place with growing appeal to Chinese visitors but this increase can be attributed to cyclical economic reasons such as the current weakness of the yen, which means that future currency fluctuations may change the current preferences of buyers of Chinese goods Luxury in their neighboring country. There are also political risk as a possible repetition of travel boycotts that happened during the dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku Islands.

Disclosure: The medium is not responsible for the views expressed in the article. The text was written freely expressing ideas, without receiving any compensation. The author has no business relationship with any of the companies whose shares are listed in this article.